![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
The people I am following are cautiously hopeful; it mostly depends on turnout on election day at this point, although the indications are that a whole lot of women are voting.
That said, on Threads, I am following a pollster called nevbear1 who has been both pragmatic but also optimistic that Kamala can win. He screens for what he calls 'low-value' polls in his results, and has consistently had a +1-2 for the Democrats. His analysis of the statistics is that this is more 2008 than 2016, or even 2020.
On TikTok, I started following Shawna Presley Vercher, who I believe worked in the Obama administration and is now a political commentator. She's good and calm and also hopeful. Well, she's a bit more than just hopeful. She's called the election for Kamala based on the early voting stats.
It does seem that most mainstream media is very "this is a close race" but as so many people have pointed out: the mainstream media needs it to be a close race in order to sell advertising space to the people who will be glued to the screen to watch the 'close race' unfold. There's a lot of first time voters. There's a lot of early voters. There's a lot of women voters. And things seem...well, hopeful.
For some reason, my brain has settled on a landslide of 398. I'm certainly wrong, but that's what my brain has come up with. Silly brain. We'll be happy with a win and an acceptance of the results.
Tomorrow, I'll be wearing a blue top, pearls, and some lace-up sneakers. Black with red dragons on them. I got them in 2012 and have never worn them; I'm not sure how my feet are going to take it. Guess we'll find out!
(Maybe I could sew some padded insoles to help support my arches? Hm.)
Good luck, guys. We're cheering you all the way.
That said, on Threads, I am following a pollster called nevbear1 who has been both pragmatic but also optimistic that Kamala can win. He screens for what he calls 'low-value' polls in his results, and has consistently had a +1-2 for the Democrats. His analysis of the statistics is that this is more 2008 than 2016, or even 2020.
On TikTok, I started following Shawna Presley Vercher, who I believe worked in the Obama administration and is now a political commentator. She's good and calm and also hopeful. Well, she's a bit more than just hopeful. She's called the election for Kamala based on the early voting stats.
It does seem that most mainstream media is very "this is a close race" but as so many people have pointed out: the mainstream media needs it to be a close race in order to sell advertising space to the people who will be glued to the screen to watch the 'close race' unfold. There's a lot of first time voters. There's a lot of early voters. There's a lot of women voters. And things seem...well, hopeful.
For some reason, my brain has settled on a landslide of 398. I'm certainly wrong, but that's what my brain has come up with. Silly brain. We'll be happy with a win and an acceptance of the results.
Tomorrow, I'll be wearing a blue top, pearls, and some lace-up sneakers. Black with red dragons on them. I got them in 2012 and have never worn them; I'm not sure how my feet are going to take it. Guess we'll find out!
(Maybe I could sew some padded insoles to help support my arches? Hm.)
Good luck, guys. We're cheering you all the way.
Tags: